Sudan Crisis: Mass Exodus Into Chad and South Sudan Reaches Catastrophic Levels

TL;DR

• 14 million people displaced — the world's largest displacement crisis, with 1.3 million fleeing into Chad and 900,000+ into South Sudan.
• Famine declared in parts of Darfur — the first official famine since Somalia 2011 — with 19.5 million facing acute hunger and 825,000 children at risk of severe acute malnutrition.
• Funding has collapsed: the 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan is only 12.9% funded; US contributions dropped from $350 million to $100 million; WFP has cut rations by 50%.
• Chad, one of the world's poorest nations, now hosts 1.7 million displaced people — malnutrition rates in camps exceed Gaza's 2024 peak.
• South Sudan is deporting Sudanese refugees at scale — 12,000 violent deportations documented — into a country itself on the brink of famine and civil war.
• The true death toll likely exceeds 150,000; 880 civilians killed by drone strikes since January 2026 alone.
• Without urgent funding and diplomatic intervention, the June–September lean season threatens to become the deadliest period of the conflict.

1. The Scale of Displacement

The numbers are staggering by any historical measure. Sudan's displacement crisis now exceeds the total population of Belgium. The outflow has created two primary corridors of exodus:

Into Chad

Chad has absorbed the largest share of Sudanese refugees. As of 30 April 2026, 1,311,982 people have crossed into Chad since the onset of the crisis, comprising approximately 913,000 Sudanese refugees and 398,815 Chadian returnees — nationals who had been living in Sudan and were forced back to their homeland. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) projects this number will rise to 400,000 returnees by June 2026 due to ongoing conflict and food insecurity in Darfur ¹.

These new arrivals join approximately 400,000 Sudanese refugees who had remained in Chad since the 2003 Darfur conflict, meaning eastern Chad now hosts roughly 1.7 million displaced persons — equivalent to the entire population of Brussels walking the distance to Paris to find shelter ².

Into South Sudan

More than 900,000 South Sudanese returnees have crossed back into South Sudan since April 2023. The Renk transit centre, designed for 2,000 people, was housing approximately 8,000 Sudanese refugees and South Sudanese returnees as of May 2026 — a 400% overcapacity situation ³. An additional 100,000 people fleeing violence in Sudan's Blue Nile State have arrived in South Sudan and are struggling to survive in areas with extremely limited infrastructure, healthcare, and water capacity ⁴.

2. Famine: The First Official Declaration Since Somalia 2011

In what the UN has called a historic and devastating milestone, Sudan has become the first country since Somalia in 2011 to receive an official famine declaration. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has confirmed famine conditions in:

• El-Fasher (North Darfur) — following the RSF's complete takeover of the city in October 2025
• Kadugli (South Kordofan) — though the SAF broke the siege in early 2026

An additional 14 areas across North Darfur, South Darfur, and South Kordofan remain at credible risk of famine in the coming months, including Dilling, Um Baru, Kernoi, At-Tine, and parts of rural El-Fasher, Melit, Kutum, and Tawila ⁵.

Key Food Security Statistics

The INGO Forum in Sudan has cautioned against interpreting the absence of a formal famine classification in additional areas as evidence that famine has been averted, warning: "History shows that famine declarations often come too late, after too many lost lives" ⁶.

How People Are Surviving

Families in the worst-affected areas are surviving on one meal a day or less. The Norwegian Refugee Council's Grace Oonge reported from Port Sudan: "We've had reports of families who've been forced to eat leaves, who've been forced to eat animal feed, even reports of families breaking into slaughterhouses that have been closed down just to get the skin of the animals to be able to eat and to survive" ⁷.

3. The Humanitarian Response: Critically Underfunded

Funding Gap

The 2026 Sudan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan requires US$2.87 billion to reach 20 million people with life-saving assistance. As of mid-2026:

• Only 12.9% of the appeal has been funded (approximately US$369 million) ⁸
• The INGO Forum reported in May 2026 that the response was only 19% funded four months into the year ⁶
• UN agencies aimed to reach 4.8 million people per month between February and May, but only 3.1 million received assistance in February ⁹

The US Funding Collapse

The sharp decline in United States humanitarian funding has had a catastrophic impact. In 2024, US assistance to humanitarian operations in Chad alone amounted to approximately US$350 million. By 2026, this figure had declined to US$100 million, with funds channelled through OCHA under a new and uncertain process ².

The consequences have been immediate and severe:

• WFP food rations cut by 50% in Chad in early 2026, reducing daily caloric intake to approximately 850 kcal per person — well below minimum requirements
• UNHCR unable to expand camp capacity or facilitate new arrivals
• Reproductive health and gender-based violence services substantially scaled back

The European Union, as the second-largest donor, has maintained relatively stable funding but has not been able to offset the US reduction.

Compounding Crises

The US-Israel war on Iran has further worsened the situation by raising food, fuel, and fertiliser prices, making a successful harvest later in 2026 less likely. Sudan's rainy season, beginning around July and coinciding with the lean planting season, is expected to further deteriorate conditions ⁷.

4. Chad: A Host Nation at Breaking Point

The Poorest Hosting the Most

Chad ranks near the bottom of the Human Development Index, alongside Somalia, the Central African Republic, and South Sudan. Life expectancy is approximately 55 years. Within this fragile national context, eastern Chad — particularly the provinces hosting refugees — exhibits even more severe deprivation ².

A 2024 nutrition survey in Ouaddaï province, which hosts the largest refugee population, found the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition among children under five at 17.9% , exceeding emergency thresholds. By comparison, peak malnutrition rates among children in Gaza in 2024 were estimated at approximately 16.5% ².

Camp Conditions

Humanitarian actors have established nine new refugee camps since 2023, each hosting between 40,000 and 50,000 persons, the majority women and children. Some pre-existing camps from the 2003 Darfur crisis have been expanded to accommodate up to 100,000 inhabitants. Despite these efforts, nearly one-third of refugees have not been relocated to formal camps and have settled informally on private agricultural land, generating tensions with host communities ².

The logistical challenges are immense:

• Shelter construction requires materials transported from over 1,000 km away, at approximately €500 per household
• Water access demands deep boreholes exceeding 100 metres, requiring specialised drilling equipment
• Annual food assistance costs are estimated at up to €250 million, reaching approximately 900,000 beneficiaries monthly across 30+ sites
• Cash-based interventions are hindered by the absence of banking infrastructure and mobile money networks

Disease Outbreaks

Between 2024 and early 2026, Sudan experienced a nationwide cholera outbreak that spread across all 18 states, infecting more than 124,000 people and causing over 3,500 deaths. While authorities declared the outbreak contained in March 2026, overcrowded displacement sites, poor sanitation, and limited healthcare access continue to create significant risks of renewed outbreaks ¹⁰.

5. South Sudan: A Reverse Exodus to a Fragile Homeland

Mass Deportations and Forced Returns

A particularly disturbing dimension of the crisis is the systematic deportation of South Sudanese nationals by Sudanese authorities. While officials acknowledge deporting approximately 2,853 individuals, humanitarian agencies tracking the border crisis estimate the true figure is closer to 12,000 ³.

Investigations at the Wunthou transit centre in northern South Sudan have revealed a pattern of violent midnight raids characterised by:

• Extrajudicial killings
• Family separations (including mothers deported without children)
• Confiscation of cash, mobile phones, and personal belongings
• Racist verbal abuse, with deportees reporting soldiers using slurs including "black plastic bags"
• Prolonged arbitrary detention

Theresa Achol, a 31-year-old mother of six who had lived in Sudan for 14 years, described security forces bursting into her home while she was making flatbread: "Three trucks accompanied by six armed military vehicles were waiting for us. The police and soldiers ordered us to leave without taking anything. They said our food and clothes were already in South Sudan." She reported that her uncle, aunt, and eight-month-old nephew were killed by soldiers during raids ³.

South Sudan's Own Crises

The deportees and returnees are arriving in a country ill-equipped to receive them. South Sudan is experiencing:

• Economic collapse with hyperinflation and currency collapse
• A resurgent civil war that displaced nearly 300,000 people in the first quarter of 2026 alone
• Severe climate-induced flooding
• Transit centres operating at 400% capacity

At the Renk transit camp, humanitarian workers report insufficient food and cash assistance, delays in onward transportation, inadequate shelter, repeated fire incidents, gaps in specialised health services, and protection risks including family separation and discrimination ⁴.

6. The Human Toll

Death Toll

Fatality estimates remain highly contested due to limited humanitarian access, communication blackouts, and verification constraints. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded nearly 30,000 reported deaths by late 2024. However, several independent investigations and international media estimates suggest the true death toll may exceed 150,000 ¹⁰.

Attacks on Civilians

The conflict has seen escalating use of drones, aerial strikes, and long-range attacks targeting civilian infrastructure:

• In December 2025, a drone strike on a kindergarten and hospital in Kalogi reportedly killed at least 114 people, including dozens of children
• Drone warfare has killed at least 880 civilians since January 2026, according to the UN Human Rights Office
• Drones have targeted markets, hospitals, power stations, and displacement sites

Children

UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell described the situation in stark terms: "Children suffering from severe acute malnutrition arrive at overstretched facilities too weak to cry" ⁹. An estimated 825,000 children under five are expected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition in 2026 — a 7% increase from 2025 and 25% above pre-conflict levels.

Sexual and Gender-Based Violence

Ethnic violence and SGBV continue to escalate, particularly in Darfur. Human rights organisations and women-led monitoring networks have documented widespread abuses including conflict-related sexual violence, forced displacement, arbitrary detention, and attacks targeting ethnic communities. Women and girls fleeing Darfur have endured unimaginable violence, with many arriving in Chad recounting systematic sexual violence during their journey ².

Family Separation

The war has torn families apart. The International Committee of the Red Cross reports that thousands of Sudanese refugees have no phones or internet connections to contact relatives. Some heads of household have stayed behind in Sudan while sending family members to safety — and three years later, they remain separated. As one Sudanese teacher told Christianity Today: "Sometimes I feel like I have to leave this country. Then I remember I have a family to support" ¹¹.

7. Regional Destabilisation

The conflict is increasingly destabilising neighbouring countries through:

• Refugee flows overwhelming fragile humanitarian systems
• Cross-border insecurity and arms trafficking
• Growing pressure on already stretched host community resources
• Emerging onward migration — particularly younger refugees undertaking dangerous journeys toward Europe ²

The US-Israel war on Iran has compounded these pressures by disrupting supply chains, raising food and fuel costs, and delaying humanitarian aid deliveries across the region ¹⁰.

8. Diplomatic and Military Stalemate

Despite sustained diplomatic pressure — including sanctions imposed by the United States and United Kingdom on RSF leaders and affiliated financial networks — regional and international mediation initiatives have failed to secure a durable ceasefire or political settlement.

The military situation has continued to fragment:

• The RSF has expanded territorial influence across much of Darfur and intensified offensives in Kordofan
• The SAF maintains control over key eastern and northern urban centres
• Fighting around Kadugli, Dilling, and other strategic locations in Kordofan has trapped large civilian populations
• Sudan has recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia, accusing Addis Ababa of involvement in drone attacks on Khartoum

9. What Is Needed

Humanitarian agencies and analysts have identified several urgent priorities:

1. Immediate cessation of hostilities and protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure
2. Safe, rapid, and unimpeded humanitarian access across borders and conflict lines
3. Urgent funding — the US$2.87 billion appeal must be frontloaded before the June–September lean season
4. Emergency agricultural assistance — providing seeds, tools, and inputs to boost local food production
5. A humanitarian–development nexus approach — shifting from temporary humanitarian infrastructure to durable, long-term development solutions in host countries like Chad
6. Targeted vulnerability-based assistance rather than broad status-based food distribution
7. Investment in refugee self-reliance — leveraging the skills, education, and entrepreneurial capacity of Sudanese refugees
8. Renewed diplomatic engagement toward a negotiated political settlement

10. Outlook

Without urgent, coordinated, and sustained international engagement, the crisis is likely to continue worsening through the 2026 lean season (June–September). The convergence of conflict, famine, disease, mass displacement, and severe underfunding has created conditions not seen since the Horn of Africa famine of 2011 — but at a far greater scale.

As the Egmont Institute concluded in its May 2026 assessment: "Without a substantial and timely increase in international support, the humanitarian response in eastern Chad risks systemic failure, with potentially far-reaching and destabilising consequences for both displaced populations and host communities" ².

The Sudan crisis has been called "an invisible crisis" — overshadowed by conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and more recently the US-Israel war on Iran. But the numbers tell an undeniable story: this is the largest displacement crisis on Earth, and it is accelerating.

Sources

1. IOM Chad, "Sudan Crisis Response Situation Update No. 64," April 2026. 

2. Laurent De Ruyt, "Sudanese Refugees in Chad: A Critical Humanitarian Response on the Brink of Collapse," Egmont Institute, 18 May 2026. 

3. Augustine Passilly, "Sudanese Authorities Carry Out Deportations and Abuse of South Sudanese," The New Humanitarian / allAfrica, 14 May 2026. 

4. "Humanitarian Feedback Bulletin: Renk, South Sudan, April 2026," ReliefWeb, 18 May 2026. 

5. "Sudan Food Security Outlook Update, April–September 2026," FEWS NET / ReliefWeb, May 2026. 

6. "INGO Forum Reactive Statement on Sudan IPC Findings," ReliefWeb, 14 May 2026. 

7. "Acute hunger grips nearly 20 million people in war-battered Sudan, says IPC," Al Jazeera, 14 May 2026. 

8. "Sudan 2026," UN OCHA Financial Tracking Service.

9. Vibhu Mishra, "Sudan hunger crisis deepens as UN warns millions face acute food shortages," UN News, 15 May 2026. 

10. "Sudan Crisis Situation Analysis (Period: 25/05/26 – 31/05/26)," ReliefWeb, 9 June 2026.